Monday, December 20, 2004

A Person of the Year that Makes Sense

Ron Baiman, Ph.D., has written an exhaustive report entitled: The United States of Ukraine?: Exit Polls Leave Little Doubt that in a Free and Fair Election John Kerry Would Have Won both the Electoral College and the Popular Vote. Dr. Baiman is an Economist/Statistician who works as a senior research specialist at the Institute of Government and Public Affairs at the University of Illinois at Chicago, and teaches at the University of Chicago.

Here are some excerpts from Dr. Baiman’s scholarly, well-researched report:

“Again, assuming state specific error and performing a similar calculations for the other most critical of the critical states: Florida and Pennsylvania, the probability that that perfectly random exit samples would be off by as much as they were in the three critical states of Ohio, Florida, and Pennsylvania is less than one to 152 million (1/152,209,887). The probability that non-random exit samples would be simultaneously in error in all three states at once is about one to 468 thousand (1/467,907), or in lay terms: impossible.

These unexplained statistical anomalies in the vote count in critical states, such as Ohio, Florida, and Pennsylvania, and in the national popular vote for the 2004 Presidential elections, indicate:
a) Implausibly erroneous exit sampling especially for the national sample and for the most critical states where one would have expected pollsters to be most careful, and/or
b) Election fraud and/or discriminatory voter suppression that resulted in a in an election result in Ohio, Florida, and other states, and in the national popular vote outcome, that is contrary to what would have occurred in a free and fair election.

I conclude that, based on the best exit sample data currently available, neither the national popular vote, or many of the certified state election results, are credible and should not be regarded as a true reflection of the intent of national electorate, or of many state voters, until a complete and thorough investigation of the possibilities a) and b) above is completed.

An election that is not 'free' because of discriminatory suppression of the vote by not supplying an adequate number of voting machines, or by other means, could lead to an exit sampling discrepancy, as exit sampling is in part based on historic patterns of voter turnout. However the actual outcome in such an election would not be free or fair and would be less reflective of voter intent than exit sampling. Analysis of raw precinct level exit samples (which so far have not been released) should shed some light on where and when changes in the weights for raw precinct numbers, necessary to get state samples, were made.”

In an excellent essay, just in time for the holidays, entitled The Greatest Story Ever Told, Robert Lockwood Mills compares and contrasts the biblical tale with the 2004 election irregularities. Here are some excerpts:

“The United States is in crisis, 271 years after Zenger established press freedom as a precious right of Americans. A new despot has emerged in the form of corporate control of media. Our big-city newspapers and TV networks have consolidated; what the public learns and what it doesn’t is governed by a handful of oligarchs more concerned with the financial status quo, about their earnings and pleasing Wall Street, than about informing citizens. In 1733, what King George didn’t want printed was libel. Today, what the media barons don’t want read might not be libel…but it doesn’t get printed, either.

Within 48 hours of John Kerry’s concession on November 3, no fewer than 57,000 complaints had been lodged about one voting irregularity or another: unfair allocation of voting machines, penalizing minority neighborhoods; votes switched from Kerry to Bush electronically; minority voters being told by “election officials” that because of the long lines, they could vote on Nov. 3 if they wished; voters threatened with having their cars towed if they didn’t leave the queue; others denied provisional ballots on invalid premises, still others directed to the wrong polling stations by people posing as election monitors.

But the tabulated vote told a different story. George W. Bush was winning. The exit polls, as it happened, had been very accurate in states that used mostly paper ballots. But they were wildly ‘inaccurate,’ always favoring John F. Kerry, in states using predominantly electronic voting machines. Touch-screen and optical-scan voting equipment is manufactured exclusively by corporations with ties to the Republican Party. The source code inside these machines (which could reveal if they had been tampered with) is considered proprietary information, not subject to review or audit by non-partisan or Democratic election officials. The opportunity for non-detectable fraud is manifest.

Open-minded people, none of whom work at a major American newspaper or for a major television network, began to wonder, ‘Maybe the exit polls were right all along. Maybe it’s the tabulated vote that was manipulated in George W. Bush’s favor.’ Reports circulated on the Internet, a combination of reported facts and theories. College professors analyzed the election data and concluded that the likelihood of all the anomalies and inconsistencies occurring in one candidate’s favor was infinitesimal.

The New York Times devoted several front-page stories to the fraudulent election…in the Ukraine, that is. Its one front-page article on allegations of election fraud in Florida and Ohio carried a headline suggesting that Internet bloggers had been devising wild conspiracy theories, but that sensible folks were quickly debunking them. Meanwhile, Senator John Conyers, ranking Democrat on the House Judiciary Committee, held hearings in Washington and Columbus, Ohio at which witnesses detailed gruesome incidents of voter intimidation and disenfranchisement. A software programmer offered an affidavit stating that in October, 2000, a Florida state legislator (now a congressman) had asked the programmer’s company to devise a vote-rigging prototype, which the programmer did…in time for the 2000 election. The congressman in question had been Jeb Bush’s running mate in a 1994 gubernatorial race. The allegation has not been refuted, except in the form of a non-specific blanket denial by the software company and its lawyer. The congressman remains silent.

None of the above news has reached holiday revelers in this Christmas season. The same media that failed to investigate Bush administration claims of weapons of mass destruction in Iraq now won’t explore what happened on Nov. 2. They’re eager to report to us on fraudulent elections in Ukraine, Belarus, Georgia, Romania, Kazakhstan, even Puerto Rico. But the very notion that an administration that deceived the American people about why it engaged in preemptive war against a country that wasn’t threatening us, would also rig an election in its own favor, is somehow incomprehensible.

Will the truth be known? It would be a wonderful Christmas present for a country that has lost its way."

To end on a well-deserved note, has named Bev Harris of Black Box Voting 2004 Person of the Year. Are you reading this Time?

“In fact, Bev Harris is far more than the poster woman for a polarized nation. Rather, she is a symbol of perseverance and commitment to democracy in a time of doubt and suspicion. She is a model of unyielding focus and determination in a time of uncertainty and disillusion. And she is an inspiring example of how one person – just one single person - can make a real difference.

It is for her ceaseless, non-partisan efforts to uncover and expose the flaws and fraud connected to electronic voting machines that has chosen Bev Harris as our 2004 Person of the Year!”

Congratulations Bev! You inspire us. We love you!


Blogger The Discontented said...

Great posting. Serious question, especially given the fact that few americans actually realize the extent to which the Republican Party went to disenfranchise voters last election. I will continue to check the site for more info.

11:09 PM  
Blogger justice said...

Thank you for your positive feedback and your continued visits. You have an interesting blog. I look forward to your posts, also.


11:45 PM  

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